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Unique risk assessment solutions for the insurance and ILS communities.
Temblor meets the needs of the insurance industry by using modern data, innovating analytical approaches, and robust independent testing to produce our state-of-the-art globally consistent earthquake models.
Current models are almost fully dependent on faults, with off-fault hazard very low. But large, damaging shocks have recently struck on unknown faults—and some of those that occurred on known faults had magnitudes far larger than the maximum magnitude those faults are assumed to have. Fault-based ‘characteristic earthquake’ models are convenient and widely used, but have shortcomings in these assumptions about faults and regional biases. To address this, Temblor created a globally uniform alternative and present a 50,000 year stochastic event set of earthquake magnitudes, depths, and rupture lengths.
An earthquake alters the surrounding hazard, which we capture in RealtimeRisk. This occurs because earthquakes impart stress to nearby faults that promotes failure in some areas, and inhibits failure in others. These stress changes are the source of aftershocks, seismic quiescences, and in some cases, progressive mainshocks. Great earthquakes, can change the hazard across a country, but moderate shocks can be just as consequential if they strike near urban centers. Although the stress changes are permanent, the hazard changes are not; they instead decay with time, just as aftershock frequencies do. We capture and forecast this process in RealtimeRisk, a unique and independently-tested Temblor tool. It is based on Coulomb stress transfer, about which Temblor’s scientists Stein, Toda, and Sevilgen are world leaders.
Current models are almost fully dependent on faults, with off-fault hazard very low. But large, damaging shocks have recently struck on unknown faults—and some of those that occurred on known faults had magnitudes far larger than the maximum magnitude those faults are assumed to have. Fault-based ‘characteristic earthquake’ models are convenient and widely used, but have shortcomings in these assumptions about faults and regional biases. To address this, Temblor created a globally uniform alternative and present a 50,000 year stochastic event set of earthquake magnitudes, depths, and rupture lengths.
Temblor developed its model by building what we believe to be the largest worldwide ground motion dataset every assembled. We then used a training set of the earthquakes with the best recorded shaking in a Machine Learning process to find a model as a function of earthquake magnitude, depth, and site amplification from our SiteAmp model, which also affects the shaking.
Query the EQscore API for numerical output of probabilistic and scenario results in the United States and Taiwan, with more limited results for any location in the world. The output includes the Temblor Earthquake Score (0-100), which is a probabilistic measure of earthquake risk for a building of interest. The score is proportional to damage loss; it considers site amplification, liquefaction and landslide susceptibility, and fault proximity. A score of 100 indicates 20% replacement cost loss in 30 years.
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Temblor App
Earthquake and shaking likelihood. Clickable faults. Flood, tsunami, liquefaction, and landslide susceptibility. Past 30 days of earthquakes, updated every 4 seconds.
Coulomb
Graphic-rich deformation and stress-change software for earthquake, tectonic, and volcano research and teaching
