Temblor Ground Motion Model
Temblor developed its model by building what we believe to be the largest worldwide ground motion dataset every assembled. We then used a training set of the earthquakes with the best recorded shaking in a Machine Learning process to find a model as a function of earthquake magnitude, depth, and site amplification from our SiteAmp model, which also affects the shaking.
We then compared observed and modeled shaking from twenty key M 6-9 shocks, as well as 500 M≤6 shocks, with representative subsets on continental transform faults (such as the San Andreas and East Anatolian Fault zones), continental thrust faults (such as the Longmenshan fault, site of the 2008 Wenchuan shock), interface subduction quakes (such as on the Japan Trench), and intraslab extensional and compressional quakes (these strike within the subducting slab). Distance to the ground motion stations is measured from the rupture trace except in subduction zones, where it is measured from the rupture periphery.
The 2023 M 7.8 Kahramanmaraş earthquake (below) is the best recorded large event the world has ever known, particularly close to the fault rupture. Even though the near-faut shaking reached unprecedented levels for an earthquake of its size, the Temblor model captures the observed shaking very well.


The 2019 M 7.1 Ridgecrest shock (above right) is the largest California earthquake to strike since Loma Prieta in 1989, and was extremely well recorded close to the rupture, and in the highly populated, and highly amplifying Los Angeles basin.

The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (above left) took at least 70,000 lives and triggered massive landslides. Unlike the M 9.0 Tohoku earthquake, the 2003 M 8.2 Tokochi-Oki shock (above right) struck just offshore northern Japan, and so provides both nearfield and far-field observations that the model fits well.